A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
